To stay with the automotive analogy, computer buyers are much smarter than they used to be, just like car buyers today are much smarter than they were in the 1950s. Most businesses and many home users now know Microsoft’s game, and so are going to considerable lengths to avoid getting stuck playing it.

Personally, I think the situation is far worse than generally thought, that MS is in a much weaker market position now. This may become more clear as hardware sales ramp up in large industrializing countries like China and India, or even if the One Laptop Per Child project succeeds in showing how much you can do with modest hardware if you just get the OS right!

The main thing MS has got going for it is that their whole situation is pretty much of their own making, and they could join the open standards party any time they choose. They should be writing down their Windows franchise, because it’s on the way out (either they start giving it away for next to nothing or it will be passed up by Linux and maybe even Mac/Unix).

If they’d just stop trying to defend Windows (which is messing up their online positioning, by the way), then they’d be able to compete much more strongly with Office and other stuff. In general though, you’re right, Jeff, buyers are not going to trust them again until they seriously commit to standards.